Analysis of global steel price movements, regional supply dynamics, and what UAE contractors should expect.
Global rebar prices stabilized in Q1 2026 after a volatile 2025. UAE benchmark rebar (BS 4449 B500B) trades at AED 2,650-2,800/MT in May, down 6% YoY.
## Drivers
Reduced Chinese export rebates, lower iron ore from Brazilian floods, and easing energy costs in Europe are the main downward pressures.
## Risks
Red Sea shipping disruptions remain a wildcard. Any major escalation could add AED 80-120/MT to landed costs within weeks.
## Buying strategy
For 2026 H2 deliveries, consider 30% forward commitment now and 70% spot purchases. Locking in 100% leaves no room to capture further downside.